Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b8…3ff5 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 26% +$1
crypto 11% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 30 -2.1% -11.5% 47% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage401d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $28 −$2 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $59 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $7 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 13-19? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 19 $2 −$1 -59%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 18 $1 +$1 +111%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 17 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 17 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $43 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $38 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $5 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $29 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $18 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $6 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $2 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $30 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $44 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.73 · official $43.60 (match) · 127 history records