Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x65b8…3c05 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$428 (+1%) realized −$128 · open +$556
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 43L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$767
7 days+$1,292
14 days+$916
30 days−$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% +$2,478
sports 10% +$1,030
world 9% −$2,230
other 8% −$921
tech 0% +$43
economics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 45% +10.6%
≤30d 48 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 42% -16.4%
≤90d 55 -14.6% -22.7% 44% 42% -10.3%
all 82 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 46% -9.8%
10% -26.3% 40% -18.5%
15% -33.4% 39% -26.3%
20% -40.0% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$176 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$3,906
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$556
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions16
Markets (closed)82 / 102
History coverage408d
Avg bet$576
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 63¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,582 +$582 (+58%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $938 −$62 (-6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 90¢ $200 $289 +$89 (+44%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $100 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 43¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$61 -60%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $244 +$351 +144%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$97 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$120 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $112 +$150 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $807 +$306 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$458 +224%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $102 +$108 +106%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$76 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 12 $100 +$70 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $1,000 +$124 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY 37¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 15¢ $41 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $102 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 7h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $102 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $41 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 30h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 30h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $101 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $51 30h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $102 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $101 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $51 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $102 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,906.02 · official $4,011.36 · 269 history records