Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x65b8…3446 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+7%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$13
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$54
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.2% +11.4% 80% 80% -6.5%
≤30d 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 72% +0.1%
≤90d 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 72% +0.1%
all 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 72% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 72% +0.1%
10% -3.9% 67% -9.5%
15% -13.2% 39% -18.2%
20% -21.7% 39% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +66%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $45 +$31 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $128 −$127 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $66 +$61 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $51 +$54 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$51 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $51 −$6 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $94 −$19 -20%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $45 −$31 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $4 +$1 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $39 +$10 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $8 +$7 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $55 +$33 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $30 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $0 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $18 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 32m
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL No 99¢ $20 39m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 39m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 82¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 77¢ $8 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $75 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $45 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 84¢ $128 4d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $127 4d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $17 4d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $49 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 100¢ $102 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $46 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 6¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 17¢ $2 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 17¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 26¢ $3 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 69¢ $48 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $45 8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Tom Nolan 99¢ $49 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records