Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b7…3798 sports 378 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-1%) realized −$249 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%203W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$77
14 days+$514
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,547
weather 40% +$1,215
crypto 3% −$184
other 1% +$46
world 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +39.4% +26.2% 51% 45% -11.8%
≤30d 236 +19.4% +8.0% 53% 44% -10.4%
≤90d 376 +16.5% +5.4% 54% 48% -11.4%
all 376 +16.5% +5.4% 54% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 48% -11.4%
10% -4.7% 43% -19.9%
15% -13.9% 39% -27.6%
20% -22.4% 36% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses203 / 173
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)376 / 378
History coverage78d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 45¢ 72¢ $23 $37 +$14 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $266 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $301 +$21 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$19 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$190 +272%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $123 +$117 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$18 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 +$61 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $123 +$21 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -75%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $202 +$136 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$38 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$8 +58%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $418 −$418 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$9 -80%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$97 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +161%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$58 +562%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $90 +$110 +122%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$85 -85%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 −$44 -86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $20 −$18 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $9 +$6 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$202 +1560%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 9m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 40m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 42m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 51¢ $6 42m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $200 58m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $184 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $322 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $201 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 73¢ $29 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $28 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.21 (match) · 1486 history records