Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b6…493e world 43 markets active 19h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$13
sports 9% $0
other 8% −$3
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 18 +2.6% -7.1% 44% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 18 +2.6% -7.1% 44% 11% -8.4%
all 43 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -8.8%
10% -20.0% 2% -17.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage246d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $81 +$6 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $11 +$2 +14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $91 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $111 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $59 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Nov 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $65 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $56 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records