Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x65b5…bdec other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$772 (+7%) realized +$772 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$1,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$1,173
other 36% +$105
world 8% −$462
sports 4% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.1% +23.1% 50% 50% +12.5%
≤30d 5 +34.2% +21.4% 60% 60% +14.6%
≤90d 5 +34.2% +21.4% 60% 60% +14.6%
all 14 -21.8% -29.3% 29% 29% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 29% -4.8%
10% -36.0% 21% -13.9%
15% -42.2% 14% -22.2%
20% -47.9% 7% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$118 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage171d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $356 +$162 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$54 +263%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$63 -64%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 06 $4,607 +$1,238 +27%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 04 $1,529 +$255 +17%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $551 −$352 -64%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jan 15 $1,000 −$65 -6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Jan 03 $312 −$312 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $342 −$111 -32%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 03 $1,141 −$205 -18%
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this Jan 03 $29 −$21 -72%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 02 $720 −$20 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $518 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $356 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $30 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $18 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $75 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $35 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 82¢ $2,690 14d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 83¢ $2,049 14d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $272 39d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $98 39d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $758 39d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $185 39d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $375 40d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $6 40d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $1,781 40d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 76¢ $35 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 76¢ $49 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 76¢ $10 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 76¢ $317 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 76¢ $11 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? SELL Yes 59¢ $1,229 142d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,036 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 143d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 143d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 58¢ $1,105 143d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 59¢ $102 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records