Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b5…aa71 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,010 (+35%) realized +$24,316 · open −$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,654per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$847est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23,478
7 days+$27,040
14 days+$27,040
30 days+$27,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$29,446
other 31% −$2,650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 27% +28.0%
≤30d 38 -4.2% -13.3% 32% 29% +28.0%
≤90d 38 -4.2% -13.3% 32% 29% +28.0%
all 38 -4.2% -13.3% 32% 29% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 29% +28.0%
10% -21.6% 26% +15.8%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 26% +4.6%
20% -36.1% 26% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$1,851) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,032 vs −$357 · ×8.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$24,316
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$847
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,654
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $530 $525 −$5 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 8¢ $360 $59 −$301 (-84%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $680 +$1,320 +194%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,490 +$1,040 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,364 +$1,240 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $73 −$34 -47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,050 −$1,450 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $849 −$849 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15,846 +$22,982 +145%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,600 −$10 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $1,549 −$1,549 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $710 +$790 +111%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,904 −$61 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,833 −$5 -0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $843 −$4 -0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,195 +$55 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,110 −$37 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $740 −$5 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $840 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,570 −$1,047 -67%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $820 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,851 −$25 -1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,384 −$65 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1,130 −$876 -78%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,985 −$611 -31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $420 −$420 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,058 +$977 +92%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,513 +$861 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,060 +$435 +14%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $714 −$16 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,384 −$4 -0%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,913 +$6,196 +158%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $73 +$63 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 63¢ $1,245 32m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $156 35m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $9 35m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $82 35m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $7 35m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $17 36m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $45 36m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $315 39m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $315 46m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $61 55m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $17 55m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 56m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 56m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $17 57m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $170 57m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $45 57m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $38 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $60 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $58 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $29 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $29 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.29 · official $584.68 (match) · 404 history records