Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x65af…df77 sports 1286 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,087 (-1%) realized −$2,084 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%648W / 633L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$432est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$37
14 days−$486
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,273
other 12% −$471
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$19
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -27.8% -34.7% 37% 35% -11.1%
≤30d 310 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 1141 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 36% -10.4%
all 1281 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 35% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -19.2%
15% -33.1% 21% -27.0%
20% -39.7% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$2,084
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses648 / 633
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$432
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1281 / 1286
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$64 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $106 +$25 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$40 +198%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -1%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$19 +302%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +115%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$51 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jor BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND W BUY 20¢ $11 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $34 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $365 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $302 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 45¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 85¢ $100 7h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Tomas Etcheverry 12¢ $3 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 53¢ $20 11h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 20¢ $5 12h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 39¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.49 · official $28.49 · 3500 history records