Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65a8…1ae3 crypto 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%294W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$2
sports 18% +$11
other 16% −$9
weather 14% −$3
world 6% −$2
politics 4% −$8
tech 3% −$4
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 23% -7.9%
≤30d 182 -6.2% -15.1% 78% 26% -13.9%
≤90d 388 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 29% -12.2%
all 388 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 29% -12.2%
10% -21.3% 20% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 15% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses294 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)388 / 414
History coverage58d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 62¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 86¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 44¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Lion" this week? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 32m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 97¢ $2 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 33h
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 100¢ $1 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $3 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $1 41h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $5 41h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.70 · official $41.72 (match) · 802 history records