Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65a3…c1e3 crypto 1074 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$399 (-3%) realized −$399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%692W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day65.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$90
14 days+$142
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$736
other 3% −$37
culture 1% −$31
sports 1% −$65
tech 1% −$7
world 1% −$3
weather 1% −$12
politics 0% −$13
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +6.7% -3.5% 70% 70% +9.1%
≤30d 399 +1.2% -8.4% 60% 58% -7.3%
≤90d 1074 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 63% -15.9%
all 1074 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 63% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 63% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 53% -23.9%
15% -25.2% 40% -31.3%
20% -32.5% 30% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses692 / 382
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1074 / 1074
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day65.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1074 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$12 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records