Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65a0…2a86 sports 441 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,112 (+3%) realized +$4,150 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate76%331W / 107L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$382est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$27
14 days−$1,348
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,561
other 4% +$1,199
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 75% -10.5%
≤30d 94 -13.5% -21.7% 69% 61% -15.4%
≤90d 418 +5.6% -4.5% 75% 60% -6.8%
all 438 +5.5% -4.6% 76% 60% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 60% -6.6%
10% -13.7% 36% -15.6%
15% -22.0% 22% -23.7%
20% -29.7% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$123 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$4,150
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses331 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$382
Open positions3
Markets (closed)438 / 441
History coverage96d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 85¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 83¢ 80¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 54¢ 10¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $103 +$20 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $161 +$34 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$31 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $70 +$20 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $103 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 +$22 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $126 +$20 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $248 +$36 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$20 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$26 +26%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$32 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$25 +26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $131 +$21 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 +$17 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $227 +$27 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $107 +$18 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $261 +$21 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $106 +$20 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 +$22 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $107 +$47 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $187 +$20 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $63 +$24 +38%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 +$10 +36%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $153 +$20 +13%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $196 +$36 +18%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $53 +$5 +9%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $124 +$13 +11%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $161 +$17 +11%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $137 +$25 +18%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $171 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $101 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $103 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $148 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $161 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $81 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $70 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $103 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $55 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $126 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $248 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $102 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $101 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $132 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $100 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $100 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $117 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $131 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $254 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $227 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.69 · official $271.69 (match) · 1025 history records