Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x659f…b093 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$1
world 25% +$6
other 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 8% $0
weather 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +8.7% -1.7% 67% 17% -6.2%
≤90d 6 +8.7% -1.7% 67% 17% -6.2%
all 36 +1.4% -8.2% 47% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.21 per $1 lost it wins $16.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage296d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $86 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $5 +$2 +45%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? Sep 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 09 $29 $0 +0%
2025 August second hottest on record? Sep 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Sep Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $62 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $40 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $39 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $16 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $16 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $6 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $23 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $28 24d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 278d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $34 280d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 280d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 280d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $2 280d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $34 280d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 280d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 280d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.24 (match) · 142 history records