Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x659f…64e5 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,125 (-30%) realized −$1,125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$74
14 days+$65
30 days−$1,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$561
crypto 29% −$689
other 20% +$88
politics 19% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.9% -1.4% 75% 75% +12.0%
≤30d 57 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 42% -43.7%
≤90d 57 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 42% -43.7%
all 57 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 42% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 42% -43.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 37% -49.1%
15% -35.0% 25% -54.0%
20% -41.4% 18% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$47 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage30d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $185 $187 +$3 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+14%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $228 +$81 +36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 +$3 +22%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 +$25 +78%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +115%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $14 −$1 -7%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $31 −$16 -51%
Foggia: Vittoria Paganetti vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 02 $113 −$102 -90%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 02 $76 +$55 +72%
Foggia: Lisa Zaar vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Max Wiskandt Jun 02 $15 +$4 +26%
Centurion 2: Tuncay Duran vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 02 $6 +$2 +34%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Tyler Zink Jun 02 $7 +$2 +29%
Perugia: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 02 $20 −$3 -15%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $3 +$2 +64%
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey Jun 02 $20 +$8 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $253 +$13 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 23? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $37 −$28 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12AM ET Jun 02 $90 −$77 -85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET Jun 02 $36 −$14 -38%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? Jun 02 $142 −$81 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? Jun 02 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 25? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 −$7 -54%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Jun 02 $581 −$486 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $37 −$22 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6PM ET Jun 02 $229 −$202 -88%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $197 −$126 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 27 $36 +$5 +13%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $700 +$27 +4%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $1 $0 +25%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 26 $16 +$17 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 6m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 26m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.20 · official $205.20 (match) · 1962 history records