Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x659c…a086 other 384 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$806 (-2%) realized −$1,193 · open +$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate82%292W / 65L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$6,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$51
14 days−$402
30 days−$1,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$498
politics 29% +$12
world 27% −$486
economics 3% +$67
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$32
culture 1% −$51
crypto 1% +$49
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.1% +6.9% 100% 67% +3.9%
≤30d 24 -21.7% -29.1% 67% 25% -40.5%
≤90d 97 -9.5% -18.1% 79% 23% -14.2%
all 357 -4.6% -13.7% 82% 27% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 27% -12.1%
10% -21.9% 13% -20.5%
15% -29.5% 5% -28.2%
20% -36.4% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$72 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$6,982
Realized−$1,193
Unrealized+$387
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses292 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)357 / 384
History coverage270d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,436 $1,546 +$110 (+8%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $1,402 $1,542 +$140 (+10%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $466 $493 +$28 (+6%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $285 $333 +$48 (+17%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $234 $321 +$87 (+37%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? No 94¢ 92¢ $322 $315 −$7 (-2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $281 $288 +$7 (+2%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 77¢ 91¢ $230 $273 +$43 (+19%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $192 $228 +$35 (+18%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $188 $200 +$12 (+6%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $191 $192 +$1 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No 90¢ 96¢ $181 $191 +$10 (+6%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $147 $143 −$4 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $139 $128 −$11 (-8%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $120 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+3%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 79¢ 60¢ $132 $99 −$33 (-25%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $87 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+4%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $52 $58 +$5 (+10%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+7%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 66¢ 46¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-62%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $33 $10 −$24 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 21 $169 +$11 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $76 +$24 +31%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $300 +$28 +9%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 02 $76 +$14 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $296 +$19 +6%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $713 −$713 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? May 28 $198 +$9 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? May 27 $0 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 25 $72 +$20 +28%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 24 $150 −$16 -11%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $322 +$23 +7%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $91 +$9 +10%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $186 −$62 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $46 +$4 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? May 22 $185 +$9 +5%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 21 $94 +$4 +5%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 20 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" this week? May 20 $37 +$13 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Trump say "China" this week? May 19 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $300 +$18 +6%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $633 +$8 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $124 +$16 +13%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $155 +$5 +3%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of May 14 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 14 $743 +$43 +6%
Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $365 +$10 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 13 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $963 +$63 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 90¢ $36 19m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $61 42m
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $0 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $130 1h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY No 92¢ $12 2h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY No 92¢ $9 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $85 40h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $87 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $56 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $151 2d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 94¢ $169 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $116 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $18 7d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $40 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $0 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 7d
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $79 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 7d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $80 8d
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 8d
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,982.28 · official $6,982.28 (match) · 1651 history records