Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x659a…5ef1 crypto 248 markets active 5h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,223 (+2%) realized +$23,223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%246W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$6,175per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$769
7 days+$2,842
14 days+$3,149
30 days+$5,824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22,289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 49 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 248 +3.1% -6.7% 99% 3% -8.2%
all 248 +3.1% -6.7% 99% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 3% -8.2%
10% -15.7% 2% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 1% -25.0%
20% -31.3% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$6,352) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$593 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×19.8 per $1 lost it wins $19.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23,223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses246 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage81d
Avg bet$6,175
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $55,832 +$564 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20,241 +$204 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4,749 +$70 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $55,832 +$564 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2,287 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2,819 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5,029 +$64 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3,739 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $37,428 +$378 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $7,218 +$189 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4,047 +$41 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2,478 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $4,697 +$44 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $518 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2,474 +$25 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $6,793 +$80 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2,737 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $12,672 +$190 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $27,138 +$274 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1,701 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $7,177 +$282 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $2,625 +$25 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $4,368 +$135 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $2,393 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $30,935 +$31 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $31,862 +$32 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $4,127 +$53 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $2,503 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $6,759 +$175 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $1,177 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $6,648 +$635 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $3,099 +$29 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $3,317 +$58 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 23 $1,611 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 22 $3,741 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 22 $13,526 +$144 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $4,818 +$67 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $117 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $55,303 +$559 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $7,243 +$147 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $6,220 +$277 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $5,556 +$195 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 20 $507 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $243 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 18 $3,018 +$116 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33,682 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $967 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20,025 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $967 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,360 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $85 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $135 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17,295 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $117 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,849 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,782 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55,832 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2633 history records