Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x6599…c3ac other 82 markets active 2d ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$22 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$42
world 29% −$43
politics 11% −$64
sports 10% +$44
finance 9% +$15
crypto 3% −$24
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +59.0% +43.8% 53% 53% +37.7%
≤30d 15 +59.0% +43.8% 53% 53% +37.7%
≤90d 30 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 40% -1.9%
all 80 +1.3% -8.4% 41% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 38% -12.2%
10% -17.1% 36% -20.6%
15% -25.1% 32% -28.2%
20% -32.5% 30% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage274d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $11 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $30 +$8 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-09-20? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Apr 29 $5 +$3 +62%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $10 +$8 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Apr 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 19 $6 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $20 +$10 +54%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $79 +$2 +2%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 12 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Lille OSC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Mar 12 $2 +$8 +300%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-14? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $10 +$60 +603%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 27 $10 +$39 +395%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-03? Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $94 −$4 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 92¢ $15 4d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 99¢ $38 4d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 77¢ $30 6d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 59d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $10 59d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 59d
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 59d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $6 59d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 76d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 77d
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 77d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 81¢ $81 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 101d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 79¢ $79 101d
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.29 · official $16.03 (match) · 211 history records