Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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65 0x6599…2c99 crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,466 (+9%) realized +$2,415 · open −$949
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%145W / 30L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$36
world 26% −$947
crypto 13% +$1,444
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.7% -35.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -14.0% -22.2% 27% 13% -9.8%
≤90d 81 -23.3% -30.6% 64% 4% -10.0%
all 175 -6.7% -15.6% 83% 10% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 10% +0.6%
10% -23.6% 5% -9.0%
15% -31.0% 5% -17.8%
20% -37.8% 2% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.89 per $1 lost it wins $23.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$2,306
Realized+$2,415
Unrealized−$949
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses145 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)175 / 201
History coverage132d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $1,140 $2,086 +$946 (+83%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $1,140 $194 −$946 (-83%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,201 −$3 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,258 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,261 −$4 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,268 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,272 −$4 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$3 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,198 50m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 59m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,254 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,258 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,257 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,261 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,264 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,268 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,268 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,272 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 25¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 22d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 33d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38d
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,305.71 · official $2,305.72 (match) · 445 history records