Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6597…b746 sports 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$548 (+1%) realized +$485 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%152W / 153L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$764est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$181
14 days−$436
30 days−$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$445
crypto 3% +$82
other 3% −$539
weather 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 42% -3.1%
≤30d 81 +9.8% -0.7% 47% 42% -12.1%
≤90d 289 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 42% -9.7%
all 305 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 41% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 41% -9.7%
10% -13.0% 37% -18.4%
15% -21.4% 35% -26.3%
20% -29.1% 30% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$89 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$485
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses152 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$764
Open positions1
Markets (closed)305 / 306
History coverage128d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 80¢ $89 $152 +$63 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $204 +$144 +71%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $249 +$190 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $274 −$172 -63%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $177 +$103 +58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $193 −$9 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $484 −$67 -14%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $223 −$184 -82%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $147 +$107 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $250 +$158 +63%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $111 −$14 -13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $196 −$75 -38%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $63 +$48 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $203 −$203 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $376 −$241 -64%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $51 −$31 -61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $401 −$307 -77%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $215 +$117 +54%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $42 +$83 +198%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $194 −$177 -91%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $87 −$86 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $66 +$23 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $36 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 01 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$10 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $199 −$171 -86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $201 −$201 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $459 +$183 +40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $1,340 −$887 -66%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $865 −$508 -59%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $308 −$66 -21%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 29 $199 +$99 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $121 +$206 +170%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $476 +$185 +39%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $197 +$106 +54%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $766 +$499 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $261 +$247 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $134 +$135 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $633 −$20 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $87 −$78 -90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $69 +$67 +96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $149 +$141 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $201 −$131 -65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $146 +$122 +84%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $282 +$318 +113%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $213 −$189 -89%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $271 −$174 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $250 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $90 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $102 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $98 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $102 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 97¢ $266 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $173 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $147 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $102 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 17¢ $102 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 45¢ $274 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $280 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $177 27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 52¢ $184 27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $193 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 10¢ $26 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $51 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $222 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $167 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $170 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $125 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $102 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ $39 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 88¢ $39 30h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 87¢ $39 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 9¢ $39 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $223 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $254 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $147 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 96¢ $408 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.22 · official $152.22 (match) · 1060 history records