Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6593…445e other 58 markets active 4d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-10%) realized −$210 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$123
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$157
sports 22% +$23
world 18% −$79
politics 3% +$11
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.2% -36.8% 22% 22% -26.9%
≤30d 16 -25.5% -32.6% 31% 31% -31.4%
≤90d 22 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 36% -19.5%
all 48 -11.5% -19.9% 29% 29% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -30.9%
10% -27.6% 29% -37.5%
15% -34.6% 29% -43.6%
20% -41.0% 27% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage132d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 76¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+55%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 76¢ $23 $47 +$24 (+104%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 32¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-23%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $23 −$13 -56%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$11 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $50 −$2 -4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $37 +$40 +109%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$26 -63%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $33 +$31 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $34 +$35 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 +$23 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $30 −$12 -39%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $26 +$83 +325%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 04 $20 +$8 +40%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $20 +$13 +63%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $18 +$10 +53%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31? Mar 04 $13 −$10 -73%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 04 $18 +$30 +167%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2 +$8 +399%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 02 $2 +$1 +67%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $2 +$10 +525%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 51¢ $36 4d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 4d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $48 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $50 5d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $23 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $47 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $37 6d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 6d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 14¢ $15 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $34 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $33 7d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $40 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $36 11d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $35 12d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 13d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $91 13d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 17d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 17d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.06 · official $516.06 (match) · 119 history records