Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6592…2767 other 111 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,974 (+59%) realized +$3,973 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 65L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$646
other 30% +$1,480
sports 26% +$1,742
finance 1% +$12
world 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +37.6% +24.5% 33% 32% +47.8%
≤30d 97 +37.6% +24.5% 33% 32% +47.8%
≤90d 97 +37.6% +24.5% 33% 32% +47.8%
all 97 +37.6% +24.5% 33% 32% +47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 32% +47.8%
10% ← realistic here +12.5% 32% +33.7%
15% +1.7% 29% +20.8%
20% -8.3% 26% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +110% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$36 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$3,973
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions12
Markets (closed)97 / 111
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 28¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 32¢ $81 $78 −$3 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 +$331 +1608%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 18 $21 −$5 -24%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $290 −$277 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$31 -94%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $437 +$472 +108%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$201 +980%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 +$939 +458%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $204 +$72 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$64 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$265 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$188 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$52 +26%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$47 +37%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$92 -90%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $718 +$974 +136%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$81 -63%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$165 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 +$403 +980%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$277 +1345%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$38 +186%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $59 +$656 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $83 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $132 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $91 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.28 · official $615.28 · 201 history records