Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6591…9cd0 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41 (+2%) realized +$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$23
world 13% +$53
crypto 7% +$11
sports 5% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 13% -7.5%
≤30d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 13% -7.5%
≤90d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 13% -7.5%
all 30 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 13% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 13% -7.5%
10% -23.5% 3% -16.3%
15% -30.9% 3% -24.4%
20% -37.7% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $250 +$53 +21%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $16 +$30 +180%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $47 +$5 +10%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +18%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $49 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $49 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $40 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 97¢ $49 8h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $49 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $46 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $48 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $49 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $48 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $49 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $49 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 95¢ $48 29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $49 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $48 31h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 35¢ $16 2d
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 72¢ $40 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY No 91¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.40 · official $475.44 (match) · 77 history records