Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6590…3a26 weather 349 markets active 4h ago coverage 66d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$21,641 (+5119%) realized +$21,629 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%114W / 588L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$319
politics 34% +$334
other 19% −$9
crypto 7% −$4
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 +151.1% +127.2% 20% 20% -11.9%
≤30d 419 +153.5% +129.4% 21% 20% -0.6%
≤90d 702 +81.7% +64.4% 16% 16% +2.9%
all 702 +81.7% +64.4% 16% 16% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.4% 16% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +48.7% 14% -6.9%
15% +34.3% 14% -15.9%
20% +21.1% 14% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +216% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +216% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +178% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×19.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$21,629
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses114 / 588
Open positions13
Markets (closed)702 / 349
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+543%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+296%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+875%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+450%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Theo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1824%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$15 +38413%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 15 $1 +$20 +2167%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +107638%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on Jan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on Ja Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +996%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Jun 15 $0 +$34 +1133097%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Jun 15 $0 $0 -384%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on February 22 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Jan Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on Febr Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ja Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 15 $0 +$18 +801217%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on Marc Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 15 $0 $0 +950%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Jun 15 $0 +$20 +249795%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 15 $0 +$1 +206%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.22 · official $316.22 (match) · 3500 history records