Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x658f…f68b other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$373 (-4%) realized −$350 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%25W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$890
14 days+$2,176
30 days+$2,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$311
sports 3% −$300
crypto 3% +$28
world 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.1% +3.2% 60% 60% +38.7%
≤30d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 64% 64% +47.9%
≤90d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 64% 64% +47.9%
all 99 -45.5% -50.7% 25% 25% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 25% -13.7%
10% -55.4% 25% -21.9%
15% -59.7% 25% -29.5%
20% -63.7% 23% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$64 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized−$350
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses25 / 74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage284d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 47¢ 46¢ $350 $339 −$11 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $355 +$260 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $762 +$791 +104%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $255 −$250 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 +$189 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$639 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $407 +$566 +139%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $199 −$197 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$117 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $277 +$165 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 +$128 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 −$132 -195%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$30 -195%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$82 +81%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 +$115 +115%
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Nov 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Everton end in a draw? Nov 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $75 +$146 +195%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Oct 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $75 +$95 +126%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? Oct 23 $50 +$39 +79%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $356 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $355 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,552 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $255 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $203 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,299 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $660 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $973 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $199 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $407 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 12d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $277 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 91¢ $324 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $195 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 92¢ $92 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 88¢ $91 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $102 14d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 172d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 174d
Will Mali win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 174d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $83 175d
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.67 · official $526.67 (match) · 193 history records