Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x658e…2914 crypto 1727 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$143 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%719W / 972L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$139
weather 21% −$33
other 17% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -11.3% -19.8% 51% 48% -17.0%
≤30d 1442 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤90d 1691 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 42% -15.4%
all 1691 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 42% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 41% -23.5%
15% -31.8% 37% -30.9%
20% -38.5% 35% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses719 / 972
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1691 / 1727
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 94¢ $1 $8 +$6 (+575%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 74¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 82¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 67¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 75¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 75¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 84¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 67¢ 95¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+155%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 83¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 66¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 83¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 70¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 73¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? No 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 64¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 49¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? No 55¢ 28¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 84¢ 18¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +434%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 20m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.62 · official $100.80 (match) · 3500 history records