Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x658e…c00c other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$9
politics 22% −$5
sports 3% −$20
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 27% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 97 +2.6% -7.2% 14% 11% -9.6%
all 97 +2.6% -7.2% 14% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 11% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 11% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage86d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $294 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $15 +$7 +44%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $734 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $491 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 09 $521 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $171 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 22d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $15 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $54 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $54 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 34d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 34d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 35d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.87 · official $286.87 (match) · 259 history records