Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
65 0x658c…029c other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$6,303 (+27%) realized +$6,319 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate68%52W / 25L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$224
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$4,330
sports 23% +$1,778
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.4% +20.7% 83% 83% +31.3%
≤30d 6 +33.4% +20.7% 83% 83% +31.3%
≤90d 41 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 63% +9.0%
all 77 +37.1% +24.1% 68% 66% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.1% 66% +13.9%
10% +12.2% 66% +3.0%
15% +1.3% 61% -7.0%
20% -8.6% 47% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$232 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$6,319
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses52 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage166d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 32¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $247 −$244 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $506 −$500 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 +$34 +414%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $1,007 +$704 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $368 +$146 +40%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $272 +$97 +36%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $387 +$540 +140%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $393 −$390 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $304 +$222 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $210 +$204 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $500 +$525 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $500 +$649 +130%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $500 +$310 +62%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $2,000 +$831 +42%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $2,536 +$2,270 +90%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $209 −$207 -99%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 14 $66 +$143 +216%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $225 −$157 -70%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $150 +$75 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,462 −$1,308 -89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $520 −$516 -99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $402 +$318 +79%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 07 $1,000 −$993 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $65 −$64 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $30 +$34 +114%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $299 +$134 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $50 +$44 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $71 +$174 +245%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1,000 +$100 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $517 +$304 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1,252 +$767 +61%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 +$49 +488%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $30 +$64 +212%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $200 +$151 +75%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $350 +$86 +25%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $258 +$91 +35%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $200 −$147 -73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $100 +$113 +113%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $200 +$145 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $30 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 4d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $247 35d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 37d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $8 39d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $506 39d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $368 39d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $369 39d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 73¢ $272 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $254 39d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $374 43d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $15 43d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $2 43d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $8 43d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $3 43d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 71¢ $393 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 41¢ $387 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $3 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $2 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $2 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $8 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $15 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $2 46d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $2 46d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 60¢ $9 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.34 · official $15.22 (match) · 165 history records