Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x658b…3e03 world 32 markets active 1d ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$4
other 30% +$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
all 32 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $85 +$4 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +4%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump Media invest in Ethereum before March? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $9 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $49 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $6 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $46 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $12 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $32 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records