Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x6587…5ef1 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$843 (+39%) realized +$850 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$439
30 days+$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$8
sports 28% +$832
crypto 10% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 10 +42.2% +28.6% 100% 30% +75.8%
all 19 +17.0% +5.9% 95% 16% +61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 16% +61.9%
10% -4.3% 16% +46.4%
15% -13.5% 16% +32.2%
20% -22.0% 16% +19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$1 · ×33.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×597.95 per $1 lost it wins $597.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,098
Realized+$850
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage178d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $586 $581 −$5 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $524 $517 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $255 +$439 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $160 +$275 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $187 +$116 +62%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 07 $13 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? May 07 $14 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 07 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round Feb 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Google reach $420 in January? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? Feb 05 $28 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jan 09 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,098.23 · official $1,098.23 (match) · 41 history records