Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6584…3f95 crypto 581 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$626 (-11%) realized −$624 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%310W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$7
14 days+$189
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$597
crypto 28% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -1.9% -11.2% 90% 33% -8.5%
≤30d 174 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 49% -22.2%
≤90d 338 -11.7% -20.1% 58% 43% -21.2%
all 567 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 45% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 45% -19.8%
10% -25.3% 36% -27.5%
15% -32.5% 32% -34.5%
20% -39.1% 31% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$624
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses310 / 257
Open positions14
Markets (closed)567 / 581
History coverage96d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? No 81¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? No 85¢ 85¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 86¢ 84¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? No 87¢ 74¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.45 · official $130.45 (match) · 3132 history records