Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6583…17e7 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$149
other 24% +$38
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 39% -21.0%
≤30d 59 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 39% -21.0%
≤90d 59 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 39% -21.0%
all 59 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 39% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 39% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 32% -28.6%
15% -49.5% 27% -35.5%
20% -54.4% 20% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $83 +$31 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$75 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$20 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$55 +90%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$41 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$8 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records