Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6581…3f76 weather 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-6%) realized −$145 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%194W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$24
14 days−$15
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$179
crypto 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.4% +0.8% 79% 58% -18.0%
≤30d 64 +13.5% +2.7% 78% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 251 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 23% -16.8%
all 251 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 23% -16.8%
10% -19.2% 12% -24.8%
15% -27.0% 7% -32.1%
20% -34.2% 4% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses194 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage73d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $68 −$42 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 −$54 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $27 +$15 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 28 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 66¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $34 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.60 · official $36.60 (match) · 656 history records