Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6581…f4dd sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$438 (+2%) realized +$438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$744
7 days+$653
14 days+$558
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$535
other 26% −$332
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.6% -7.1% 44% 22% -6.2%
≤30d 21 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 24% -6.5%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 33% -8.5%
all 68 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 35% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 35% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 26% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 24% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage95d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $6,554 +$113 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $4,925 +$389 +8%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $2,019 +$418 +21%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,295 −$33 -3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $876 −$142 -16%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $474 −$26 -5%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $156 +$5 +3%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $576 −$60 -10%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $146 +$10 +6%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $96 +$48 +50%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $229 −$72 -31%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $124 −$3 -2%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $71 +$16 +22%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $132 −$3 -3%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $93 −$7 -8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 07 $114 −$80 -70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$1 -11%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$5 +82%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,923 −$91 -5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $4,144 −$211 -5%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $211 −$13 -6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $96 +$20 +21%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $1 $0 -10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 +$9 +193%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $179 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +11%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 16 $1 $0 +46%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Apr 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 20 $143 −$143 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Mar 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 64¢ $1,909 42m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 60¢ $1,831 43m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $1,812 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 67¢ $673 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 67¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 66¢ $1,139 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 67¢ $67 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 67¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 44¢ $1,110 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 41¢ $1,071 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 76¢ $1,835 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 72¢ $1,757 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 80¢ $774 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 80¢ $256 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 79¢ $417 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 35¢ $778 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $48 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $2 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $1 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $9 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $6 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $3 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $14 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $6 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $578 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $1 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $9 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $2 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 28¢ $19 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $1,371 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records