Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x657c…d525 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,063 (-57%) realized −$8,063 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,568per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$89
14 days−$8,087
30 days−$8,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$8,334
sports 3% +$194
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -13.8%
≤30d 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 33% -61.6%
≤90d 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 33% -61.6%
all 9 -31.4% -38.0% 44% 22% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 22% -61.8%
10% -43.9% 11% -65.4%
15% -49.3% 11% -68.8%
20% -54.3% 11% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$1,731 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,063
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,568
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $358 +$247 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $742 −$383 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $669 +$72 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,823 −$8,184 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,356 +$186 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $75 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $358 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $358 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $742 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $662 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $163 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $476 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,808 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $6,014 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,541 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,055 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $300 9d
Timberwolves vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 84¢ $53 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records