Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6575…06ca crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+8%) realized +$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%56W / 50L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day168.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 106 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 106 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 50% -6.5%
all 106 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 50% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 50% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 44% -15.4%
15% -20.4% 42% -23.6%
20% -28.2% 42% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses56 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day168.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 53¢ 92¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $3.00 · 213 history records