Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x656f…64cc
weather · 16 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$3 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 75¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 50% +1.2%
all 10 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 50% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% +1.2%
10% -9.0% 30% -8.5%
15% -17.8% 30% -17.3%
20% -25.8% 20% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.81 · official $7.81 (match) · 24 history records