Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x656e…60ba other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$428 (+88%) realized +$427 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$416
politics 3% $0
other 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 6 +40.0% +26.6% 100% 50% +80.1%
all 12 +23.9% +12.1% 100% 33% +77.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 33% +77.7%
10% +1.3% 25% +60.7%
15% -8.4% 17% +45.2%
20% -17.4% 17% +31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$427
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage138d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 77¢ 80¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? No 93¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Apr 17 $281 +$262 +93%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 13 $123 +$152 +124%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 9? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 10 $2 $0 +16%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal Ho Apr 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Mar 08 $3 +$1 +35%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 26 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.82 · official $54.82 (match) · 31 history records