Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x656c…d46c crypto 491 markets active 1d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-5%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate47%229W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -17.9% -25.7% 50% 18% -26.2%
≤30d 210 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 19% -17.1%
≤90d 491 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 22% -19.1%
all 491 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 22% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 22% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 14% -26.9%
15% -34.4% 8% -33.9%
20% -40.8% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses229 / 262
Open positions0
Markets (closed)491 / 491
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 491 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1033 history records