Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x656c…be87 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%64W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$95
other 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 31% -11.5%
≤30d 36 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 31% -11.5%
≤90d 120 -12.7% -21.0% 53% 42% -14.1%
all 120 -12.7% -21.0% 53% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 42% -14.1%
10% -28.5% 32% -22.3%
15% -35.4% 18% -29.8%
20% -41.8% 13% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$31 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$9 -43%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $14 −$4 -25%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 27 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 27 $15 −$13 -90%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 27 $53 +$14 +26%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 27 $56 +$14 +25%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $8 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $16 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $18 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $13 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.25 · official $3.25 (match) · 461 history records