Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6567…50d6 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$95 (-5%) realized +$5 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$378
other 49% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.6% -20.1% 36% 36% -16.6%
≤30d 14 -11.6% -20.1% 36% 36% -16.6%
≤90d 14 -11.6% -20.1% 36% 36% -16.6%
all 14 -11.6% -20.1% 36% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 36% -16.6%
10% -27.7% 36% -24.6%
15% -34.7% 36% -31.9%
20% -41.1% 36% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$114 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$87 +171%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $133 +$356 +268%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$104 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$182 -60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$158 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$171 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 58m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $33 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $40 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 25h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $51 38h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $306 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $489 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $133 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $204 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $123 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $323 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 22 history records