Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6565…70e0 crypto 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-5%) realized −$343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%234W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$25
14 days−$674
30 days−$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$403
other 1% −$9
finance 1% −$8
world 1% −$12
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 25% 12% -19.1%
≤30d 563 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 23% -16.1%
≤90d 566 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 23% -16.1%
all 572 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 23% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 23% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 19% -23.9%
15% -33.2% 15% -31.2%
20% -39.7% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses234 / 338
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)572 / 573
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 572 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
US Yacoub El Mansour leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 -26%
IR Tanger leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -80%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$5 -15%
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$6 -12%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$6 -27%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Jun 10 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -29%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 6¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 47h
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US Yacoub El Mansour leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
IR Tanger leading at halftime? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 3d
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3436 history records