Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6563…fc6b weather 446 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+0%) realized +$112 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%406W / 28L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$26
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$51
other 6% +$76
economics 4% +$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 229 +3.2% -6.6% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 401 +2.2% -7.6% 95% 1% -9.4%
all 434 +2.0% -7.7% 94% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 1% -9.4%
10% -16.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,080
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses406 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)434 / 446
History coverage110d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $327 $327 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $476 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $267 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 18 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $105 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $16 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $30 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $76 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $192 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $70 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $93 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $300 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $300 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $31 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $44 31h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $20 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $476 40h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $107 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,080.12 · official $1,080.12 (match) · 1654 history records