Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
65 0x6562…4e48 sports 968 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,751 (-10%) realized −$12,751 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%512W / 452L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$914est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$5,688
other 10% +$213
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -65.7% -69.0% 19% 17% -69.9%
≤30d 477 -32.1% -38.6% 41% 37% -24.1%
≤90d 964 -10.8% -19.3% 53% 48% -13.5%
all 964 -10.8% -19.3% 53% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 48% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -21.8%
15% -34.1% 25% -29.3%
20% -40.5% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,751
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses512 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$914
Open positions0
Markets (closed)964 / 968
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 964 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +114%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $67 +$11 +17%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 +$6 +10%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $60 +$22 +37%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$15 +145%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 +$37 +365%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 26 $293 −$292 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $297 −$3 -1%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $48 +$24 +51%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $350 +$31 +9%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $43 −$42 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $49 −$49 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 +$11 +543%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $330 +$55 +17%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $32 −$32 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 +$5 +34%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$6 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 +$4 +44%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $65 −$2 -2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$6 +58%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $66 +$9 +13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $49 +$11 +23%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $13 +$10 +76%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $40 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $67 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $66 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $60 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 26h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 84¢ $293 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $293 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $4 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $297 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $30 28h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 29h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $22 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 SELL 78¢ $381 29h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 29h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records