Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655f…04c0 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4
other 20% −$2
finance 9% $0
politics 6% $0
weather 3% −$5
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.4% -5.5% 43% 14% -7.8%
≤30d 15 +1.5% -8.2% 27% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +1.5% -8.2% 27% 7% -8.8%
all 30 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage479d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 75¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $48 +$3 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +25%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $9 $0 -5%
Predators vs. Rangers Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $10 $0 -1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Feb 27 $14 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $51 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $42 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $17 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $29 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $7 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.50 · official $25.67 (match) · 86 history records