Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655c…1a00 crypto 1360 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,065 (-5%) realized −$3,065 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%506W / 854L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$347
14 days−$670
30 days−$1,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$705
other 20% −$1,224
politics 12% −$363
crypto 11% −$185
finance 11% −$553
sports 4% −$236
weather 3% −$99
tech 2% −$151
culture 1% −$44
economics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -9.9% -18.5% 4% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 205 -6.5% -15.4% 1% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 1168 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 31% -15.3%
all 1360 -4.7% -13.8% 37% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 36% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 30% -23.1%
15% -29.6% 12% -30.6%
20% -36.5% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,065
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses506 / 854
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1360 / 1360
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1360 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $70 −$3 -4%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 17 $45 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $412 −$30 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $84 −$14 -16%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 16 $98 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 −$19 -29%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $64 −$3 -5%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 14 $39 −$11 -30%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $62 −$10 -17%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $149 −$5 -3%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $46 −$5 -11%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $96 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $98 −$9 -9%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $150 −$5 -3%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $38 −$33 -88%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $39 −$15 -39%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $124 −$11 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $105 −$4 -4%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 12 $94 −$9 -9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $86 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $150 −$6 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 11 $81 −$16 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 11 $38 −$15 -40%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $93 −$4 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $144 −$4 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $705 −$37 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $134 −$3 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $269 −$13 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $75 −$6 -8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $149 −$2 -2%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $130 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $159 −$3 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $72 −$1 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $76 −$9 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL No 46¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 47¢ $70 1h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? SELL No 29¢ $43 1h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? BUY No 30¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes 61¢ $126 9h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 70¢ $147 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 52¢ $45 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $11 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $8 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $8 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $8 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $8 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 53¢ $4 20h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 34¢ $70 24h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 40¢ $84 24h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 64¢ $95 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 65¢ $98 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 60¢ $89 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $90 31h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $57 45h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $78 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 31¢ $45 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 54¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $25 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 42¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records