Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6559…4dcb sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$563 (+6%) realized +$562 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate79%87W / 23L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$630
14 days+$414
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$553
other 29% +$176
tech 9% $0
culture 2% −$160
crypto 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 27% -1.8%
≤30d 91 -19.3% -27.0% 75% 23% -4.9%
≤90d 92 -19.1% -26.8% 75% 23% -4.9%
all 110 +7.1% -3.1% 79% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 27% -4.5%
10% -12.4% 12% -13.6%
15% -20.9% 9% -22.0%
20% -28.6% 5% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$562
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses87 / 23
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage717d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner THE VISION 98¢ 100¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 +$3 +3%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Broady vs. Holmgren: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $53 $0 +1%
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $53 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri Jun 22 $110 +$5 +4%
Comesana vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $74 +$1 +1%
Guerrieri vs. Goffin: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet Jun 22 $574 +$143 +25%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $99 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $24 +$1 +5%
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Frech Jun 22 $210 +$15 +7%
Set 2 Winner: Wong vs Gojo Jun 22 $57 +$2 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Completed Match: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $74 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Gomez vs Tabur Jun 22 $69 +$21 +30%
Set 1 Winner: Djere vs Houkes Jun 22 $90 +$9 +10%
Set 1 Winner: Piros vs Ivanov Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Tauson vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $36 +$14 +38%
Zizo: 4+ shots Jun 22 $433 +$17 +4%
Chris Wood: 2+ goals Jun 22 $240 +$10 +4%
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals Jun 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $82 +$1 +1%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 4+ shots Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 5+ shots Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Jun 22 $215 +$10 +5%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 22 $52 +$1 +2%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists Jun 21 $234 +$16 +7%
Diego Moreira: 3+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 21 $64 +$1 +1%
Hao-Yu Lee: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Rhys Hoskins: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $437 +$13 +3%
Austin Hedges: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $189 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $24 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $69 +$1 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $49 +$1 +3%
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Blinkova (+1.5) Jun 21 $248 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $124 +$1 +1%
Torres vs. Boogaard: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Ouakaa vs. Kirkin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $173 +$2 +1%
Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goals Jun 21 $381 +$19 +5%
Exact Score: UD Almería 3 - 3 Málaga CF? Jun 20 $124 +$5 +4%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ goals Jun 20 $236 +$14 +6%
Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $153 +$1 +1%
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Thea Frodin Jun 19 $191 +$34 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 19 $179 +$39 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 98¢ $53 1h
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 96¢ $52 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $51 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $52 3h
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $53 5h
Broady vs. Holmgren: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $53 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 100¢ $14 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 96¢ $24 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 96¢ $24 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 95¢ $24 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 93¢ $23 5h
Comesana vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 6h
Comesana vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 6h
Comesana vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 6h
Guerrieri vs. Goffin: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 6h
Guerrieri vs. Goffin: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 69¢ $15 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 59¢ $16 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 57¢ $25 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 51¢ $13 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 55¢ $14 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 53¢ $13 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 52¢ $13 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 52¢ $13 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 55¢ $14 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 66¢ $17 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 78¢ $20 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 84¢ $21 6h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 97¢ $24 7h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 97¢ $24 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.25 · official $54.25 (match) · 423 history records