trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -47.9% | -52.8% | 40% | 40% | -43.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -35.6% | -41.7% | 36% | 36% | -33.4% |
| all | 21 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 43% | 38% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.8% | 38% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -33.8% | 24% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 19% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -46.1% | 5% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 56¢ | $74 | $82 | +$8 (+11%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 44¢ | $74 | $66 | −$8 (-11%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 08 | $2 | +$1 | +48% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? | May 28 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Thunder vs. Suns | May 07 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | May 07 | $2 | +$3 | +197% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 31? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 6? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? | Mar 31 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 23 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 16? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 27? | Feb 28 | $5,367 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Feb 27 | $5,053 | $0 | -0% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 9? | Feb 21 | $1 | $0 | +37% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 3? | Feb 04 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 27 | $5 | $0 | -0% |