Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6557…1923 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$286 (+39%) realized +$287 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
sports 40% +$288
world 13% −$8
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 67% +38.7%
≤90d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 80% 40% +67.8%
all 17 +8.9% -1.5% 88% 24% +63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 24% +63.1%
10% -10.9% 24% +47.5%
15% -19.5% 18% +33.3%
20% -27.4% 18% +20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.89 per $1 lost it wins $25.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage168d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $295 $292 −$3 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 07 $6 +$6 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 02 $3 $0 +8%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 21 $186 +$195 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Apr 17 $100 +$86 +86%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Apr 14 $3 $0 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Apr 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? Mar 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 09 $7 $0 +1%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Feb 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 23 $2 $0 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 23 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.86 · official $373.86 (match) · 35 history records