Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x6556…483e
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 5 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$4
crypto 32% −$6
other 19% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $3 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 50¢ $2 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $3 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $2 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 19h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 50% -25.9%
≤30d 10 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 50% -25.9%
≤90d 10 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 50% -25.9%
all 10 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 50% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 50% -25.9%
10% -33.3% 40% -33.0%
15% -39.8% 40% -39.5%
20% -45.7% 40% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.92 · official $12.92 (match) · 24 history records