Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x6554…098d
other · 145 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 87
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)140 / 145
History coverage480d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 5 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? No 88¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $61 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $82 −$22 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Apr 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $743 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $675 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $669 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 29 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $12 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $4 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +3%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$1
sports 18% +$2
world 18% −$22
economics 14% +$1
politics 8% +$3
culture 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $64 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 26h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $65 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $63 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $40 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $61 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $68 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $67 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 23 -1.6% -10.9% 26% 0% -10.1%
all 140 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.37 · official $6.75 (match) · 717 history records