Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6552…355d other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%26W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$17
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 0% -8.6%
all 27 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×79.59 per $1 lost it wins $79.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses26 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage24d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $127 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $247 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $121 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $234 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $114 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $223 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $101 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $133 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $131 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 38h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $128 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $128 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $129 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $129 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $127 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $127 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $124 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $124 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $124 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $121 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $120 11d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $101 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $117 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $68 13d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $114 15d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 15d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 16d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.63 · official $133.63 (match) · 64 history records